By Robert Windrem and Jim Popkin, NBC News
Is this an opportune time for a terrorist attack? Could Al-Qaida use the current financial distress and political uncertainty in the U.S. to magnify its power?
U.S. intelligence officials say no. They suggest that while Al-Qaida may want to be "part of the conversation" in the U.S. presidential election, there is no "specific or extraordinary" threat information, nothing to indicate that terrorists are capable of taking advantage of the current situation.
"They attack when they can, when they have an opportunity," said one intelligence official, adding that terrorists have wanted to attack the U.S. but have tried and failed on several occasions since Sept. 11. "For whatever reason, they have not seen the conditions they need to succeed," said the official.
Indeed, NBC News has obtained a "note" by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security that debunks recent Internet reports predicting a terror strike inside the United States prior to the elections or the inauguration. The note was distributed yesterday to thousands of U.S. law-enforcement officials, and authored by the Extremism and Radicalization Branch of the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI's Threat Analysis Unit.
The unclassified note said: "A privately-run U.S. website that comments on Homeland security issues on 24 September posted an article describing an alleged 2 August posting to an Arabic language Internet forum suggesting that a large-scale attack against the U.S. Homeland would be forthcoming in early October. Subsequently, the same U.S. website warned that the threat window could be anytime from the present into early November. Further fueling speculation, a former FBI counterterrorism analyst predicted in an interview with an Internet news website that al-Qa‘ida or affiliated groups would attack the United States in the months after the election or inauguration in order to influence the new administration and its policies. These and similar Internet reports cite the recent terror attacks in Yemen and Pakistan as indicators of stepped-up efforts by al-Qa‘ida and its affiliates to implement an 'October surprise.'"
No credible intelligence to suggest an imminent threat
But the note added: "DHS/I&A, the FBI, and JRIC have no credible, specific intelligence to suggest an imminent threat to the Homeland and assess these election-related threats to be non-credible. Nothing in the purported Arabic-language message is unique among the hundreds of vague threats posted online each day. Moreover, it is unlikely that al-Qa‘ida or its affiliates would provide specifics regarding the time, dates, or locations of proposed attacks."
Terrorism experts agree. Michael Sheehan, former counterterrorism ambassador at the State Department, said it is a myth that terrorists wait for an opportune time to attack. "They don't wait. They attack when they're ready," said Sheehan, who is now an NBC News terrorism expert.
Messages yes, attacks no
A second U.S. intelligence official noted, however, that analysts still expect to see "an uptick" in threat reporting all the way up to the Inauguration on January 20. In fact, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security issued a separate bulletin this past weekend predicting more messages from Al-Qaida in the coming weeks. "We expect Al-Qaida to release additional messages before the election" for U.S. president," the FBI/DHS notice said.
"They certainly want to be a topic of the election campaign," added the second official, noting that Osama Bin Laden appeared in a videotape just four days before the presidential election in 2004. Sen. John Kerry has said he believes the video heightened the fear of terrorism--and swayed enough voters to stay with President Bush.
"At a minimum, we would expect to see a message as we did in 2004 and what have seen this weekend with Adam Gadahn," said the first official, referring to a video from Gadahn, the American terrorist who this past weekend criticized the U.S. government and the newly installed government in Pakistan.
The second official also noted that there has indeed been an increase in English-language messages in recent weeks, first by al Qaeda's No 2., Ayman al Zawahiri and then Gadahn. While some of the uptick can be attributed to Al-Qaida's desire to stoke discontent and motivate homegrown western terrorists, officials believe the real target is English-speaking dissidents in Pakistan. (It's also an attempt, both officials note, to increase the likelihood that their message will be broadcast since they are using English. Al-Qaida has not been getting a lot of airtime lately, the officials agree.)
The intelligence officials added that Al-Qaida has shown no preference for either candidate in the presidential election. "Their hatred goes far deeper," said the first official. "It doesn't matter to them who's president."
