By Jim Popkin, NBC News Senior Investigative Producer
What if the al-Qaida deputy spoke, and nobody listened? That's essentially what happened today when the propaganda division of the terrorist group released its latest video--complete with a major new speech by the al-Qaida deputy, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri--celebrating the anniversary of the 9-11 attacks.
Al-Qaida released the new 90-minute tape to the Al Jazeera television network, played select portions of it throughout the day. But the tape has received scant attention in the United States, especially compared to recent 9-11 anniversaries.
Terrorism analysts say that Americans--and American media outlets--are ignoring al-Qaida messages at their own peril. For many Americans, terrorism concerns are "falling off the radar, as al-Qaida has been silent in the USA (and much of the West) since 9-11," said Michael Sheehan, the former counter-terrorism official for the State Department and the City of New York. "Foreign attacks are mostly background noise. This is troublesome, for if we lose our focus they will attack us again at home," said Sheehan, who is now an NBC News terrorism analyst.
Robert Grenier, the former CIA counter-terrorism official and former CIA station chief in Islamabad, agreed. "We probably overreacted initially" to al-Qaida threats after the 9-11 attacks, Grenier said, "and we are under-reacting now." He said that while al-Qaida has suffered setbacks in recent years, it is resurgent along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and is still extremely dangerous. He said Zawahiri's messages should not be discounted. "This man, unlike Bin Laden, is still an active terrorist. What he has to say to the faithful" still matters, Grenier said.
So what did Zawahiri say?
As the wire services reported, Zawahiri said Tehran was "cooperating with the Americans in occupying Iraq and Afghanistan." He slammed Iran for recognizing the two governments. He also criticized the Shiites for not calling for a jihad in Iraq against the "Crusader occupier." (In militant postings, "crusaders" is shorthand for U.S. troops in Iraq.)
"The guardian of Muslims in Tehran is cooperating with the Americans in occupying Iraq and Afghanistan and recognizes the two hireling governments there," al-Zawahiri said. Zawahiri has been increasingly singling out Iran and Shiites in his messages, most recently in April, describing the "Persians" as the enemy of Arabs and complicit in the occupation of Iraq.
The new video by As-Sahab, the terror group's propaganda arm, also featured clips of al-Qaida operations on various fronts, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia, with prominent figures from the movement discoursing on their accomplishments over the year, Al-Jazeera said.
The U.S. Response:
A U.S. counter-terrorism official tells NBC News that U.S. agencies are mindful of the anniversary. “The anniversary of September 11 serves as a solemn reminder of what we know to be the case. That is, we face the constant threat of terrorism and are working hard to prevent attacks against Americans and our allies," the official said. "This is a serious challenge for the nation, and we’re working hard to confront it.”
Complacency?
Ben Venzke, who analyzes videotaped terrorism statements for IntelCenter, said that Americans are becoming dangerously complacent about terrorism. He said he is reminded of the weeks before the 9-11 attacks, when the public (and media) were focusing on shark attacks and the latest turns in the Chandra Levy murder mystery. "If there's an attack, it's going to be out of the blue and blindside us," Venzke said. "If we could just manage to keep our attention span," he said, Americans would be better able to put any possible terrorist attack into perspective.
"They [terrorists] stay patient and focused, and we become an easier and easier target," Venzke said.
NBC News terrorism analyst Evan Kohlmann says, if Americans have become blasé about terrorist statements, it's partially Zawahiri's fault. "He keeps rehashing the same set of basic issues over and over again," Kohlmann said. "Given a country like the U.S., which has a collective attention span of 5 minutes, it is easy to see why people get bored."
Ironic Timing?
Of all weeks, Americans arguably should remain more attentive to al-Qaida claims now. The 9-11 anniversary is just a few days away, of course. And a London jury just today convicted three Islamic extremists for conspiracy to murder in a thwarted airplane-bomb attack.
In the case, prosecutors had argued that a group of British Muslims with ties to Pakistan had planned to use explosive hydrogen peroxide, disguised as a soft drink, to attack targets in the UK. But the jury could not reach a verdict on prosecutors' claims that they intended to target passenger jets flying from London to major North American cities with suicide attacks.
A jury in London found that Abdulla Ahmed Ali and coconspirators Assad Sarwar and Tanvir Hussain were guilty of conspiracy to murder by the use of hydrogen peroxide to make a bomb. But the jury failed to reach verdicts on charges against four other defendants. An eighth man was acquitted.
U.S. and British investigators stopped the attacks before they could materialize. But Venzke said that Americans should not assume that they are safe just because there have been no terror attacks on U.S. soil since 9-11.
"It's still al-Qaida," Venzke said. "It's still the group that killed 3,000 Americans."
